Core idea:
Not everything that explains something counts as evidence for it.
Why this matters
Humans are excellent at producing explanations, especially after the fact. A story that makes sense can feel indistinguishable from proof, even when it adds no new information.
Evidence constrains explanations. Explanations without evidence are flexible enough to fit almost any outcome, which makes them psychologically satisfying but epistemically weak.
How to use this tool
- Ask whether the claim predicts something specific.
- Separate observations from the story built around them.
- Check whether alternative explanations fit the same facts equally well.
- Prefer explanations that risk being wrong.
Common failure modes
- Treating plausibility as proof
- Mistaking narrative coherence for confirmation
- Accepting explanations that explain everything and therefore nothing
This tool helps prevent explanations from quietly replacing evidence.