Core idea:
Before evaluating a claim, ask what evidence would actually count against it.
Why this matters
Many arguments feel strong not because they are well supported, but because they are structured so they cannot fail. When no possible evidence is allowed to count against a claim, the claim stops functioning as an explanation and becomes a commitment.
Asking “What would change my mind?” forces a claim back into contact with reality. If the honest answer is “nothing,” then the issue is no longer evidence but identity, loyalty, or belief preservation.
How to use this tool
- State the claim clearly.
- Ask what observation, result, or discovery would weaken or overturn it.
- Check whether that standard is reasonable and achievable.
- Apply the same standard to your own beliefs.
Common failure modes
- Vague answers (“better evidence,” “more research”)
- Standards that shift when challenged
- Requirements so extreme they can never be met
This tool does not demand certainty. It demands openness to revision.